How to read prediction market odds
On a prediction market every outcome trades as a share between $0.00 and $1.00. The winning share pays $1.00 at resolution and the others pay nothing. That makes the price the market's implied probability.
Price, probability and payout
A Yes share at $0.25 implies a 25% chance. Buying $100 of it gets you 400 shares, which pay $400 if Yes wins: a profit of $300, or decimal odds of 4.00. The odds converter turns any price into decimal, American and fractional odds.
Spread and liquidity
The price on a market list is usually the midpoint or last trade. You buy at the ask and sell at the bid. On thin markets the gap can be several cents, which on a 10-cent share is a large cost. Check liquidity and spread on the market page before trusting a number.
Prices are not facts
Markets can be wrong, slow or pushed around by a few large traders, especially with little volume. Treat the price as one input, not as the answer.